Can someone give a simple example of a scalp?

[bfpsu]

HI,
Wondering about scalping. Can someone give a simple example?
Thanks

 

[AceRothstein]

Team A is -120 at one book. Team B is +140 at another book.

You put 100 down on Team A -120 and 100 down on Team B +140 at the other shop.

Team A loses you're -$120
Team B wins you're +$140

Net profit = $20
Risk = $0

 

[AceRothstein]

Team B loses -$100
Team A wins +$100

Profit = $0
Risk = $0

 

[Stickie]

Ace that is a bad example. The way you do it you only make money if the dog wins. Here is how I think it should be done using your numbers

Team A -120
Team B +140

Team A Bet $120 to win $100
Team B Bet $ 90 to win $126

Team A loses Team B wins (-$120 +126) +$6
Team A Wins Team B loses(+100 -90) +$10

This way you make money regardless. Lets face it the fav is going to win more times than the dog. If you only get money when the dog wins you will leave a lot of money on the table.

 

[mhk]

Good example stickie, dead on.. They are tough to find nowadays, buts thats how you hit them, nickel and dime them to death.. Its all about the slow, grind it out profit anyway..

 

[Phigment]

In practice how would you recognize a scalp opportunity? Would it be as easy as looking at an overview of different books' lines like on the live lines page here?


How long on average would you have to capitalize on such? (i.e. do the math to make sure you're not screwing it up somehow)

 

[AceRothstein]

Ace that is a bad example. The way you do it you only make money if the dog wins. Here is how I think it should be done using your numbers

You're right. That's a much better example.

 

[Stickie]

In practice how would you recognize a scalp opportunity? Would it be as easy as looking at an overview of different books' lines like on the live lines page here?


How long on average would you have to capitalize on such? (i.e. do the math to make sure you're not screwing it up somehow)

Scalps are available usually less than 5 minutes before lines move again. Most times less than 5 minutes in my experience. Do the math quickly.

 

[Phigment]

Team A -120
Team B +140

Team A Bet $120 to win $100
Team B Bet $ 90 to win $126

Team A loses Team B wins (-$120 +126) +$6
Team A Wins Team B loses(+100 -90) +$10

Is there a formula based on the lines to determine the optimum dollar amount to wager on each side?

 

[LEYKIS101]

Is there a formula based on the lines to determine the optimum dollar amount to wager on each side?

Phigment,

I don't have an Excel formula for it, but I will show you how I come up with approximate amounts for each side. This is an actual scalp I did on tonights Angels/Whitesox game:

Local total line: 8 -110 either way, I will be the Under since Pinnacle is offering the plus odds on the Over.
Pinnacle line: 8 over +117

I take the positive minus the negative for a $100 bet(+117-110), equaling $7. For a scalp you're taking both sides so cut that in half to $3.50 per side per $100. I noticed many times if I cut it directly in half I ended up with a little more on one side, I, instead reduce the halfway point by a buck or two. I tried for $16 each side based on $500 for both sides bet.

Local - Under 8 550 risked to win 500
Pinnacle - Over 8 483.76 to win 566 basically $16 each way unless the total pushes at 8.

Lemme know if this explains it well enough.

 

[Phigment]

Your explanation led me down the right path. I gave it some more consideration and built a quick excel sheet that returns the % weight of each side with the lowest standard deviation for either outcome. Multiply each by your desired total wager and it gives you the proper dollar amount for each side.

Now I can hopefully pounce on some scalps and be certain of the math.

 

[LEYKIS101]

Excellent job Phigment. I hope you find scalping to be profitable, you have to act fast as the window for scalps closes quickly. It really sux being shutout at the half, but it happens every now n then. A local book will help you achieve a higher # of scalps, at least I get plenty from mine.

GL :drink:

 

[Phigment]

Is there a site that compiles the current lines, like the live lines on this site, but is desgned more for identifying scalping opportunities?